Will RAM Prices Go Down? Forecast and Outlook

The answer for UK buyers

Probably not before 2027, and possibly not then. The firms that make memory chips expect supply to stay short next year, and the main market researcher still forecasts rising contract prices for the rest of 2026. Only one prominent voice, Acer's chief executive, expects relief in sight, and he talks about PC prices rather than memory kits.

That is the outlook in brief. Our RAMageddon explainer tells the story of the shortage so far, and why RAM is so expensive covers the causes. This page looks forward: what each forecaster expects, what could bring prices down, and how to decide whether to buy now.

Who expects what

Here is every forecast we could trace to a named source. They are projections, not facts, and they measure different things: contract prices, supply, or the price of a finished PC.

TrendForce offers the shortest horizon. Its press release of September 30, 2026 has standard DRAM contracts gaining a further 10% to 15% over the final three months of the year, while buyers still cannot get all the chips they want. A TrendForce news item on October 20 put the fourth quarter gain at about 20%, against roughly 80% in the second quarter and 40% in the third as that article describes them. It blames the slowdown on a high comparison base, weaker buying power and price caps in long term contracts. The figures differ, but the direction is the same: smaller rises, not falls.

The memory makers are gloomier. During Micron's earnings call on September 30, Mehrotra told analysts that orders will exceed output in both 2027 and 2028 and that he cannot see the market balancing, according to Tom's Hardware. CIO adds that more than three quarters of Micron's 2027 production is already promised to customers. Per TechSpot, SK hynix's CEO sees the squeeze peaking in 2027 and lasting to 2030, and that Adata's chairman expects high prices for another decade.

The case for cheaper RAM

The optimistic view rests on China. Acer's Jason Chen gave DigiTimes his view, relayed by TechSpot: PCs get 5% to 20% pricier by the end of 2026, reach a high point in early 2027, and then drop as cheaper Chinese supply such as CXMT arrives. He also argues that the shortage only affects high end parts.

There is something behind that. CXMT captured a tenth of worldwide DRAM revenue in 2026's second quarter and became the fourth largest DRAM maker, according to BusinessKorea. Chosun Biz, cited by TrendForce, reported that Apple and Tesla have raised the idea of buying from Chinese suppliers such as CXMT and YMTC as memory costs climb. Neither company has confirmed it.

The TrendForce report tempers the hope. Analysts cited there expect limited pressure on prices in the near term, because Chinese suppliers are held back by volume and by the markets they can sell into. CXMT has also shown progress on a denser DRAM cell design, but full production is generally expected after 2028, and the news did not move spot prices, which kept rising.

Why most forecasts point the other way

The money is still on the server side. TrendForce says suppliers keep moving capacity to server products because margins are higher there, and warned in September that PC DRAM supply could shrink in 2027 as a result. Cloud providers lock in output with multi year agreements, so part of the next two years of production is already spoken for.

New factories are coming, but slowly and mostly for AI. Micron's initial Idaho fab was due to begin output around mid 2027, SK hynix is aiming at early 2027 for the first cleanroom in Yongin, and Samsung is reportedly bringing equipment into its P5 fab in the second quarter of 2027. At the same time, DigiTimes says AI-focused high bandwidth memory could absorb almost 30% of DRAM wafers in 2027, versus roughly 20% as of September 2026. We read this as servers being served first, so a new fab will not make desktop DDR5 cheaper overnight.

Shop kits face one more squeeze. Many are built by module makers that buy their DRAM chips from Samsung, SK hynix or Micron. Apacer's CEO warned that DRAM supply from major makers to independent module makers could drop by about 70% in 2027, DigiTimes reports.

The wholesale market shows no turn either. TrendForce put its benchmark DDR4 chip at US$46.357 in the week to October 20, 2026, a weekly gain of 0.84% and roughly eight times its level a year earlier, in late September 2025. It described DDR5 spot supply as tight, with suppliers reluctant to sell and some buyers raising bids without getting stock.

Where UK prices stand this week

Wholesale moves reach UK shelves with a delay of weeks to months, so our weekly shop data is where a turn would show first for you. These are the latest figures from Amazon.co.uk, AWD-IT, Box, CCL, Laptops Direct, Overclockers UK and Scan, checked on 2 November 2026. Everything below is including VAT.

Median DDR5 desktop price per GB, 4 week change: not measured yet. 12 week change: not measured yet. Since 13 October 2026: not measured yet. We started tracking UK shops recently, so these numbers cover our own weeks rather than the whole surge. The RAM price chart adds every new week.

The rise has already hit finished devices in pounds. The Guardian reported in May 2026 that Sony added £90 to the PS5, Microsoft added £170 to £200 to Surface starting prices and Apple put £100 on the MacBook Air starting price. Its advice then was to consider refurbished devices and to buy sooner rather than later.

When to buy, and when waiting makes sense

If your PC is short of memory for work, or a stick has failed, buy now. Nothing in the forecasts above points to lower prices over the next few months, and TrendForce's fourth quarter outlook points up. Even if the wholesale market turned tomorrow, shop prices would take weeks to follow.

If the upgrade is optional, waiting is a reasonable gamble, as long as you know which side you are on. You are betting on Acer's view and on Chinese supply arriving faster than the memory makers expect. Pick a price you would pay, then check it every few weeks rather than every day.

For a desktop, a matched two stick kit is the usual pick. Compare kits by price per GB on our DDR5 RAM prices page, or see 32GB RAM prices if that is the size you are after. Not sure how much you need? Our guide on how much RAM you need sets out the sizes by use.

What we do not know yet

• Which side is right about 2027: Acer's CEO or the chip makers.
• How quickly Chinese makers such as CXMT can ship enough volume to move prices.
• What share of the fab capacity arriving from 2027 reaches consumer DDR5, as opposed to HBM and servers.
• Whether cloud providers keep buying memory at today's pace.
• The lag between a drop in wholesale prices and cheaper kits on UK shelves.